Thursday, October 15, 2015

My Crystal Ball

*HISTORY*

1859 - First US commercial drilling

1969 - Peak world oil discovery

2005 - Peak conventional, rising prices

2014 - Saudis remove production restrictions, falling prices

*FUTURE*

2016 - Major market drop/correction, only affecting the economy in a tangental way (perhaps similar to 1987)

2017 - Oil prices rise again, US shale gets back in the game to some extent

2019 - Peak world production

2017/18-2020/21 - Increased world tensions, regional conflicts, hot wars of the proxy/"peacekeeping" variety, temporary solutions

2020-2030 - Stagflation, social chaos, looking for solutions to energy. High inflation, high energy costs.

2024/25 - Major economic crisis, geopolitical tensions begin to build in response

2028-2032 - world war, which will be rooted in resource issues although the official reason is something else.

2032-2040 - new normal takes hold, either:
1) Widespread nuclear destruction takes society back several hundred years, or
2) The energy problem is being solved and we looking for solutions to problems caused by AGW
Either scenario is equally likely. Ideally we find great replacements for fossil fuels before this, but it is not likely.

If scenario 1:

Population reductions ongoing from disease and malnourishment, successive generations not getting the benefit of modern schooling, mankind regressing, etc. Nuclear winter clears after several decades exposing human population to effects of AGW. If there are untouched, modernized cities, then modern amenities will eventually succumb to the fact that the global supply chain has been destroyed, besides being overwhelmed by refugees. Scenario 2 can't take place if global networks (supply, communications, etc.) and industrial capacity are gone.

If scenario 2:

2040 - this is us on the other side of this thing. Frameworks for long-term economic prosperity are in place. The 40s are a time of development and looking ahead.
2050 - Sustainability is reached. CO2 stops at 550ppm (3 deg. C rise by 2100 baked in), geo-engineering solutions for AGW are taking shape along with human migrations and technological adaptations.
2060 - Complete end of fossil fuels
2070 - Fusion reaches widespread deployment, opening a whole new level of human development.

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